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Zero, nothing. That’s how Merriam-Webster defines the word ‘nil.’ But in today’s college athletics NIL can mean quite the opposite, as in “Mucho Moola.” Less than three years since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that college athletes can be paid for use of their name, image or likeness (NIL), boosters of major college sports programs around the country have been collecting cash to help entice top players to either sign with their teams or change jerseys from other schools with lucrative, often shady, marketing deals. One college quarterback recently was seen taking possession of a nearly $300,000 Lamborghini.

Determined not to have their top players pilfered by other schools, states are busy passing laws to enhance the NIL playing field for their state’s schools, while also insulating them from being sanctioned for their efforts by the governing body of college sports, the NCAA.

HB 4119, which is intended to do just that, flew through the Oregon House last week and awaits action in the Senate. The deluge of action by state legislatures is tied directly to the failure of the NCAA to establish comprehensive rules on NIL activities, as well as a long-standing opposition by the NCAA to paying players, especially in football and basketball, which generate billions of dollars for the coffers of the NCAA and its member schools. It is a great business model when you don’t have to pay the workers who generate the profits.

While players receive little more than scholarships for their work, schools are happy to spread the financial windfall elsewhere. Consider that the highest paid college football coaches made an average of $10 million this past season in base pay alone. Studies show that the nation’s top football programs pay millions more in football coaches’ salaries than they pay for all their schools’ sports scholarships combined.

You might call it the sports industrial complex. Alabama pays its football coaching staff about $20 million a year. The University of Oregon athletic department boasts 26 individuals designated as either associate or assistant athletic directors and about 250 employees overall.

Lucrative broadcast rights for college football and men’s basketball have obliterated any lingering argument for calling them amateur contests.

“The time may come when schools agree to simply hire a football or basketball team to represent the school, just as they hire coaches,” said Rep. Zach Hudson, who supported the bill in committee.

HB 4119 is a necessary step to stay competitive in what is now the Wild West of college sports. The NCAA has lost control of the landscape, thanks largely to its own blindness to recognizing the legitimate financial rights players should own in the conduct of the enterprise. But the bill is somewhat symbolic.

Stephanie Vardavas is a former Assistant General Counsel for both Major League Baseball and Nike, and currently is an adjunct professor in sports product management at the University of Oregon.

“A state legislature has no jurisdiction over the NCAA as it is a voluntary, membership driven and governed organization,” she said. “What I think the bill does is send a shot across the bow to the NCAA that if you are going to mess with us, you’re going to get trouble.”

Historic alliances, like the Pac-12 Conference, have been destroyed in a conference realignment movement driven entirely by the allure of big money. Olympic sports, like track, gymnastics, wrestling and volleyball, now will find student-athletes travelling transcontinental to accommodate the financial goals of the football program. I can’t wait to watch that beach volleyball match between Northwestern and UCLA on the shores of Lake Michigan in December.

There is a sense of irony that college football, the sport that generates much of the money to pay for non-revenue sports, is also responsible for the trauma student-athletes in those sports will likely experience.

HB 4119 provides a layer of protection for Oregon’s universities in the desire to stay competitive in the revenue chasing frenzy. While necessary, it also adds to the patchwork of rules adopted by multiple states that will make it difficult for the NCAA or a new governing body to create a comprehensive and uniform standard of conduct that all must adhere to.

Vardavas found particular interest in the inclusion of “athletic reputation” in HB 4119, turning NIL into NILR. “Of course, the entire source of the value of the NIL rights is precisely the athlete’s athletic reputation,” Vardavas said. “Nobody is signing up to do trading cards featuring the English majors … unless those English majors can also shoot threes.”

The move to recognize the value college players bring to the table and pay those players as employees is gaining momentum. Of course, in Oregon if they were employees they would be considered “public officials” under Oregon’s ethics laws, and using their position as star athletes at the university to be paid for NIL would be “using their public position for personal gain” and put them in violation of Oregon Ethics Law.

Alas, there’s always something else to contend with, isn’t there?

The Oregon short session may have originally been created with the intention of allowing for mid-biennium budget fixes, but in current practice they’re loaded with bills of all kinds; holdovers from the previous session, new legislative concepts, and spending packages based on new revenue projections.

With 300 bills to work and five weeks to do the work, the short session is a frenzy of activity where legislators are warned that evenings are considered working hours. The first work session posting deadline is today, and any bill that isn’t heard by Feb. 19 is dead. The next deadlines come in quick succession the following weeks and the entire session will wrap no later than March 10.

All of this takes place on the eve of a significant primary election in which four Republican senators — Majority Leader Tim Knopp (R-Bend), Brian Boquist (R-Dallas), Dennis Linthicum (R-Klamath Falls) and Art Robinson (R-Cave Junction) — won’t be allowed to run for their current seats based on the Supreme Court upholding the Secretary of State’s reading of Measure 113. Four others won’t be allowed to run when their term is up in 2026 and two more are retiring at the end of the year.

Because of this ruling, Republicans already facing the end of their current tenure in the Senate may be less than eager to show up to vote on proposals they object to. With no time to spare, this will force legislative leaders to quickly identify the path forward on bipartisan legislation.

Both parties have agreed that housing and homelessness remain the top priority, and action in the opening week has set bills in motion to increase the housing supply and support homeless shelters.

Measure 110 has become the lightning rod of the session, with a four-hour hearing on Feb. 7 to take public comment on how to fix the drug addiction ballot measure that has fallen deeply out of favor in the public’s eye. Balancing the severity of punishment appears to be a sticking point, and if the legislature fails to act there will likely be a repeal going to voters in November.

Everything that happens in the Capitol is connected, and the tenor of these discussions will have an outsized impact on the session as a whole.

Forecast Shows Growth in Corporate Revenue

The Economic Revenue Forecast published in the first week of the short session was stable heading into tax filing season, with little change since the December 2023 forecast. Revenue is tracking as expected, and there is bipartisan agreement that any additional revenue should be funneled toward spurring housing and addressing addiction.

From a national perspective, inflation is near the Federal Reserve’s target and the labor market is still tight. The population estimates certified by Portland State University in December indicate that population growth has stalled at about 0.6-0.7%, primarily due to migration out of the state. One highlight is the expected investment this year from the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act.

The General Fund revenue forecast looks much the same as in December, with a weaker outlook for labor-related tax collections offset by strong performance of the stock market and other investments in 2023. Overall, expected general fund revenues increased by $76 million since the previous forecast due largely to corporate tax collections. Corporate income and excise taxes also nearly tripled over the past five years and the number of corporate filers has been on the rise in recent years.

Since the close of the 2023 Legislative Session, personal tax revenue is up $160.4 million (0.8%), corporate tax revenue is up 533.1 million (23.9%), General Fund gross revenue is up $635.3 million (2.5%) and net General Fund and lottery resources are up $1.229 billion (2.6%). The estimated ending fund balance for the current biennium is expected at $1.65 billion.

Corporate tax revenue of $533.1 million is projected to be dedicated to K-12 education spending in the next biennium. Current reserves are estimated at $2.1 billion and expected to grow to $2.86 billion by the end of the biennium.