Political parties strive to project a signature issue — one that defines their candidates differently from the opposing party and is validated by strong voter support. Oregon’s legislative Democrats have found their signature issue all right. Boy, have they? All 160,000-plus of them.

Performing a feat rarely accomplished in modern Oregon electoral history, opponents of the legislature’s high-profile transportation tax bill have successfully used primarily volunteers to gather the necessary signatures to refer the action to the voters.

The group, called “No Tax Oregon,” was organized and energized. Voters didn’t lack enthusiasm either. One labor union business manager told us their surprise that so many of the union’s members were talking about signing the referral petition.

Interestingly, Democrats successfully cited their focus on affordability as the key to recent election victories in New Jersey, New York, and Virginia. In Oregon, Republicans flipped the script, using affordability to upend the Democrats’ tax plan.

According to referendum leaders, recent polling suggests the tax increases have less than 20% support among all voters. Political strategists like to see 58-60% support ahead of a campaign to forecast a reasonable chance for success on election day.

SEIU, the labor union representing hundreds of ODOT workers facing layoffs, was instrumental in pressuring Democratic lawmakers to support the tax package. Now that those legislators find themselves in foxholes on the front lines, does anyone believe the union will be there to sufficiently arm them to defend their bill with millions of dollars in campaign cash at the ballot box? Seriously! Anybody?

As a shocked and stunned Robert Redford asked at the end of the movie, “The Candidate”:

Democrats have three alternatives, none pleasant, but with varying degrees of pain.

1. DAMN THE TORPEDOES, FULL STEAM AHEAD:Once certified, the tax bill is slated for the General Election ballot next November — long after the 500 ODOT workers have been laid off due to a lack of immediate funding as testified by ODOT officials citing the impending calamity. It will be a General Election with the Governor and most legislative Democrats sharing the same ballot as their tax bill. Republicans would be salivating.Not going to happen. Democrats can’t risk the potential collateral damage to their candidates from the shrapnel when the bill explodes. Besides, it means an entire year of an understaffed agency citizens depend on to keep them safe on the highway.
2. EXPEDITE THE VERDICT:The most likely scenario is that Democratic leadership will do what they should have done in the Emergency Session and pass a companion bill to move the referendum up to the May primary. It is likely to get crushed, but it would give candidates time to heal from the sting and re-focus the debate on different issues in the fall. The financial woes at ODOT, however, will remain unresolved.
3. REPEAL & RESET:Take the bitter pill and swallow hard. It won’t be fun, but discretion, as William Shakespeare wrote, is the better part of valor. Legislators could consider repealing the articles in the Referendum at the very top of the February session, thereby making an election moot, and embrace a reset. Next step is to re-examine every major expenditure and take steps in the short session to reallocate those funds to mission critical functions. May even require assistance from the Emergency Board.

The next step, as we wrote in September, an even number of Republicans and Democrats should get into a room, commit to compromise, and develop a long-term transportation plan to bring to their colleagues and the public.

Fill in and smooth the partisan potholes, prep the surface for a fresh layer of collaboration in the 2027 session. It’s time to start paving the way to the future of Oregon’s transportation system.