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As the preliminary election results continue to trickle in this morning, we are seeing few noteworthy shifts in Oregon’s political landscape. But what is clear is that Oregon voters have bucked the national trend favoring Republicans.

While voters nationally delivered the U.S. Senate, Congress, and White House to Republicans, Oregon’s incumbent Republican Congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer lost her re-election bid to her Democratic challenger, current State Rep. Janelle Bynum. This is the third time these two have faced each other in election battles, and Bynum is now 3-0. The two previous matchups were for the state legislative seat that Janelle Bynum currently holds.

In the State Senate, after 62 years in Republican control, District 27 voters in Central Oregon elected Democrat Anthony Broadman with a commanding 20-point margin. Broadman will replace Senate Republican Leader Tim Knopp, who was blocked from seeking re-election after leading the longest Republican walkout in state history during the 2023 Legislative Session. This signals more than just a shift in regional representation, because this seat delivers Democrats supermajority control in the Senate once again.

The one silver lining for Republicans came in the Oregon House, where Democratic efforts to unseat House Republican Leader Jeff Helfrich appear to have fallen short. Helfrich, who was down in the initial returns on of election night, currently holds a narrow but increasing lead of approximately 250 votes. If it sticks through the final ballot count, this outcome tempers the anticipated Democratic gains and maintains a key foothold for Republicans.

The implications of these results are particularly relevant as we look toward the 2025 Legislative Session. The Democrats’ new supermajority in the Senate theoretically empowers them to advance tax-increasing legislation without even a single Republican vote. However, since the Oregon Constitution mandates that tax bills originate in the House, where Democrats fell one seat short from supermajority control, any attempts to push through significant tax legislation could face substantial hurdles. This balance of power could shape key policy discussions on topics such as transportation funding and healthcare provider taxes, both of which are slated for debate and potential passage or renewal.

The dynamics in the House are likely to keep these discussions firmly grounded in bipartisan negotiation, potentially preventing the kind of divisive actions that have led to recent series of legislative walkouts.

Other Key Takeaways from Election Night:

• Rank choice voting debuted in Portland, elevating newcomer candidate Keith Wilson to Portland Mayor. Meanwhile, Oregon voted down Measure 117 which would have allowed ranked-choice voting more broadly.
• Measure 118, the corporate tax on sales, fell in a devastating 4 to 1 defeat statewide. All 36 counties resoundingly voted against measure.
• Oregon voters passed Measure 115, giving the Oregon Legislature the power to impeach statewide elected officials. Oregon is the only state without a formal impeachment process.
• Clackamas County Chair Tootie Smith lost her re-election to former Sheriff Craig Roberts. Fellow incumbent commissioner Mark Shull is also on the path to defeat against Melissa Fireside.

Oregon Voters Wary of New Taxes

Along with a slate of candidates and statewide measures to choose from, many Oregon voters decided on local ballot measures and levies that would set policy and fund local agencies. In all there were 107 local measures, and 62 were successful.

Overall, Oregon voters were not supportive of measures that implemented taxes or levies. Most education bonds and levies failed, and those that passed were generally tied to public safety.

Every municipality except one is on pace to ban psilocybin. The outlier is the City of Nehalem in Tillamook County where the ban is currently failing by three votes. Oregon voters statewide approved a path for psilocybin sales in 2020, but many counties and cities have independently banned the sale of the drug since then.

Amendments to charters were split by region. The Metro, Mid-Valley, Gorge, and Columbia voters are more open to changes to charters and government.  The same counties that voted against ballot measures that amended the constitutions tended to also vote against major charter changes as well. They tended to be the most conservative counties of the state.

Coos and Curry county voters both passed largely symbolic local measures to oppose offshore wind development. It doesn’t force any government action, but sends a message of local opposition to development.

Oregon Democrats Cheer Wins, Watch Tight Races Closely

Taking the podium Tuesday at the Democratic Party of Oregon’s Election Night Party, U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden drew enthusiastic cheers from the crowd.

Ever the basketball fan, Wyden vowed that Oregon Democrats would always put on a “full-court press” for justice and equality. Wyden was one of numerous party leaders who spoke during the event, part-social mixer and part-pep rally, with hundreds in attendance paying close attention to key statewide races.

Early results indicated it would be a solid night for Oregon Democrats, with Tobias Read leading in the race for Secretary of State by more than 10 percentage points; Dan Rayfield leading in the race for Attorney General by more than 6 points; and Elizabeth Steiner leading in the race State Treasurer by about 5 points. All three were on track to win their respective races Wednesday morning.

Outside the main ballroom, groups huddled around several televisions tuned to cable news channels to watch the latest updates in the Presidential Election. Several speakers including U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley and DPO Chair Rosa Colquitt tried to fire up the crowd by saying they looked forward to addressing “Madam President” in the Oval Office, referring to Vice President Kamala Harris — even as former President Donald Trump held an early lead he would never relinquish.

Each speaker also took time to thank party officials and volunteers from around the state for spending months working on campaigns.

Read, who was running for Secretary of State after serving as State Treasurer since 2017, praised voters for participating in our democracy, regardless of who they voted for. He cautioned there will be “a lot of noise in the days to come,” and preached patience while all votes are being counted.

“Oregon continues to lead the way when it comes to safe and secure voting,” Read said. “But we cannot take that for granted.”

Politics shares a genetic link to pro wrestling. Both require stamina, keen reflexes, and sometimes, cunning. False rage is common during moments of confrontation. Fans cheer and jeer. Participants go down but are never truly out. After all, there must be a rematch, in the ring or at the ballot box. That’s how the game is played.

State Rep. Ben Bowman, D-Tigard, now finds himself squarely in the center of the ring. Just like he always dreamed. Well, almost anyway.

“When I was a kid, I dreamed of being a professional wrestler. I had all their action figures. In fact, I still do,” he said with a laugh. “I remember going to a WWE event in Seattle. I wanted to be that guy.”

Bowman says he has a closet full of wrestling videos and games. They are likely good study material for his next bout as Majority Leader of Oregon House Democrats. Now that’s something to grapple with.

“I am really excited about the opportunity to lead a great group of Democrats,” Bowman said.

A state representative for just slightly more than a year, Bowman’s rapid ascent to the top post in the majority caucus, while not unprecedented, is highly unusual. It is both testament to his stature among fellow caucus members, as well as a reflection of the experience he has garnered despite his youthful age of 32.

Bowman has previously held positions with former House Majority Leader Val Hoyle, and has served as the chief of staff to former House member Margaret Doherty. He also spent multiple years on the Tigard-Tualatin School Board, including a stint as chairman.

Stepping into the center ring comes with both opportunity and peril. There is often a fine line between coming out OK or exiting KO. His task is to lead the caucus campaign effort, deciding where to pile resources and when to make the call to a hopeful candidate regrettably announcing he is going to pull the plug from the caucus life-support apparatus.

His job is a blend of guidance counselor and cheerleader, drill sergeant and tactician. This time, those action figures will be brought to life as he hopes to map and execute a plan that will extend the Democrats’ margin in the Oregon House.

When the campaign season ends, a more formidable challenge begins — the metamorphosis from political combat into cooperative governance.

Bowman provides a glimpse into his philosophy through his work as a podcaster alongside Republican political operative Reagan Knopp on their podcast, “Oregon Bridge.”

In a Dec. 13 episode, Bowman said a challenge of leadership is “how locally you can transcend partisan national political dynamics to be productive at the state level.”

He noted that for both his Democrat and Republican colleagues, “most of them want to work toward solving problems rather than advance a partisan agenda.” Bowman has shown he does more than just listen to others; he also strives to hear. It is a critical skill if one truly is to be regarded as a genuine leader.

His challenge next session, as majority leader, will be to advance the agenda of a partisan caucus. He may need to master the art of the rope-a-dope to fend off the desire of some caucus members who prefer body slams. If he helps elect a super-majority, his job will become more difficult rather than easier. There will always be members demanding something should be done “just because we can.”

Bowman appears up to the task. He has the perfect combination of a Stanford education and a commonsense degree.

Fortunately, his tag-team partner in the House will be newly elected Speaker Julie Fahey, D-Eugene, who like Bowman understands that effective governance flows through a deep commitment to pragmatism.

There will be plenty of challenges ahead. But ‘Bone Crusher’ Bowman has prepared long and hard. His first real bout  begins after primary election day, May 21. Then the ringside bell will strike initiating Round one. Let the political fight begin.

Zero, nothing. That’s how Merriam-Webster defines the word ‘nil.’ But in today’s college athletics NIL can mean quite the opposite, as in “Mucho Moola.” Less than three years since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that college athletes can be paid for use of their name, image or likeness (NIL), boosters of major college sports programs around the country have been collecting cash to help entice top players to either sign with their teams or change jerseys from other schools with lucrative, often shady, marketing deals. One college quarterback recently was seen taking possession of a nearly $300,000 Lamborghini.

Determined not to have their top players pilfered by other schools, states are busy passing laws to enhance the NIL playing field for their state’s schools, while also insulating them from being sanctioned for their efforts by the governing body of college sports, the NCAA.

HB 4119, which is intended to do just that, flew through the Oregon House last week and awaits action in the Senate. The deluge of action by state legislatures is tied directly to the failure of the NCAA to establish comprehensive rules on NIL activities, as well as a long-standing opposition by the NCAA to paying players, especially in football and basketball, which generate billions of dollars for the coffers of the NCAA and its member schools. It is a great business model when you don’t have to pay the workers who generate the profits.

While players receive little more than scholarships for their work, schools are happy to spread the financial windfall elsewhere. Consider that the highest paid college football coaches made an average of $10 million this past season in base pay alone. Studies show that the nation’s top football programs pay millions more in football coaches’ salaries than they pay for all their schools’ sports scholarships combined.

You might call it the sports industrial complex. Alabama pays its football coaching staff about $20 million a year. The University of Oregon athletic department boasts 26 individuals designated as either associate or assistant athletic directors and about 250 employees overall.

Lucrative broadcast rights for college football and men’s basketball have obliterated any lingering argument for calling them amateur contests.

“The time may come when schools agree to simply hire a football or basketball team to represent the school, just as they hire coaches,” said Rep. Zach Hudson, who supported the bill in committee.

HB 4119 is a necessary step to stay competitive in what is now the Wild West of college sports. The NCAA has lost control of the landscape, thanks largely to its own blindness to recognizing the legitimate financial rights players should own in the conduct of the enterprise. But the bill is somewhat symbolic.

Stephanie Vardavas is a former Assistant General Counsel for both Major League Baseball and Nike, and currently is an adjunct professor in sports product management at the University of Oregon.

“A state legislature has no jurisdiction over the NCAA as it is a voluntary, membership driven and governed organization,” she said. “What I think the bill does is send a shot across the bow to the NCAA that if you are going to mess with us, you’re going to get trouble.”

Historic alliances, like the Pac-12 Conference, have been destroyed in a conference realignment movement driven entirely by the allure of big money. Olympic sports, like track, gymnastics, wrestling and volleyball, now will find student-athletes travelling transcontinental to accommodate the financial goals of the football program. I can’t wait to watch that beach volleyball match between Northwestern and UCLA on the shores of Lake Michigan in December.

There is a sense of irony that college football, the sport that generates much of the money to pay for non-revenue sports, is also responsible for the trauma student-athletes in those sports will likely experience.

HB 4119 provides a layer of protection for Oregon’s universities in the desire to stay competitive in the revenue chasing frenzy. While necessary, it also adds to the patchwork of rules adopted by multiple states that will make it difficult for the NCAA or a new governing body to create a comprehensive and uniform standard of conduct that all must adhere to.

Vardavas found particular interest in the inclusion of “athletic reputation” in HB 4119, turning NIL into NILR. “Of course, the entire source of the value of the NIL rights is precisely the athlete’s athletic reputation,” Vardavas said. “Nobody is signing up to do trading cards featuring the English majors … unless those English majors can also shoot threes.”

The move to recognize the value college players bring to the table and pay those players as employees is gaining momentum. Of course, in Oregon if they were employees they would be considered “public officials” under Oregon’s ethics laws, and using their position as star athletes at the university to be paid for NIL would be “using their public position for personal gain” and put them in violation of Oregon Ethics Law.

Alas, there’s always something else to contend with, isn’t there?

The Oregon short session may have originally been created with the intention of allowing for mid-biennium budget fixes, but in current practice they’re loaded with bills of all kinds; holdovers from the previous session, new legislative concepts, and spending packages based on new revenue projections.

With 300 bills to work and five weeks to do the work, the short session is a frenzy of activity where legislators are warned that evenings are considered working hours. The first work session posting deadline is today, and any bill that isn’t heard by Feb. 19 is dead. The next deadlines come in quick succession the following weeks and the entire session will wrap no later than March 10.

All of this takes place on the eve of a significant primary election in which four Republican senators — Majority Leader Tim Knopp (R-Bend), Brian Boquist (R-Dallas), Dennis Linthicum (R-Klamath Falls) and Art Robinson (R-Cave Junction) — won’t be allowed to run for their current seats based on the Supreme Court upholding the Secretary of State’s reading of Measure 113. Four others won’t be allowed to run when their term is up in 2026 and two more are retiring at the end of the year.

Because of this ruling, Republicans already facing the end of their current tenure in the Senate may be less than eager to show up to vote on proposals they object to. With no time to spare, this will force legislative leaders to quickly identify the path forward on bipartisan legislation.

Both parties have agreed that housing and homelessness remain the top priority, and action in the opening week has set bills in motion to increase the housing supply and support homeless shelters.

Measure 110 has become the lightning rod of the session, with a four-hour hearing on Feb. 7 to take public comment on how to fix the drug addiction ballot measure that has fallen deeply out of favor in the public’s eye. Balancing the severity of punishment appears to be a sticking point, and if the legislature fails to act there will likely be a repeal going to voters in November.

Everything that happens in the Capitol is connected, and the tenor of these discussions will have an outsized impact on the session as a whole.

Forecast Shows Growth in Corporate Revenue

The Economic Revenue Forecast published in the first week of the short session was stable heading into tax filing season, with little change since the December 2023 forecast. Revenue is tracking as expected, and there is bipartisan agreement that any additional revenue should be funneled toward spurring housing and addressing addiction.

From a national perspective, inflation is near the Federal Reserve’s target and the labor market is still tight. The population estimates certified by Portland State University in December indicate that population growth has stalled at about 0.6-0.7%, primarily due to migration out of the state. One highlight is the expected investment this year from the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act.

The General Fund revenue forecast looks much the same as in December, with a weaker outlook for labor-related tax collections offset by strong performance of the stock market and other investments in 2023. Overall, expected general fund revenues increased by $76 million since the previous forecast due largely to corporate tax collections. Corporate income and excise taxes also nearly tripled over the past five years and the number of corporate filers has been on the rise in recent years.

Since the close of the 2023 Legislative Session, personal tax revenue is up $160.4 million (0.8%), corporate tax revenue is up 533.1 million (23.9%), General Fund gross revenue is up $635.3 million (2.5%) and net General Fund and lottery resources are up $1.229 billion (2.6%). The estimated ending fund balance for the current biennium is expected at $1.65 billion.

Corporate tax revenue of $533.1 million is projected to be dedicated to K-12 education spending in the next biennium. Current reserves are estimated at $2.1 billion and expected to grow to $2.86 billion by the end of the biennium.