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Editor’s note: This is the second in a series of features by Pac/West Communications Director George Plaven detailing his professional development journey with REAL Oregon. To read previous installments in this series, click the links below:

• Session 1: Klamath Falls

Situated along a muddy forest road near Roseburg, three pieces of logging equipment bellowed as crews with Lone Rock Resources harvested Douglas firs from privately managed timberland.

First, the crane-like yarder pulled entire trees up a steep hillside draped in morning fog. Next, a processor cut each log to length while stripping away limbs and bark. Finally, a large loader stacked processed logs neatly onto waiting trucks to be hauled away to the mill.

Timber and forestry were the focus of my second session with REAL Oregon in Roseburg (the “Timber Capital of the Nation,” as proudly displayed on the city seal). Our first tour stop brought us to Lone Rock Resources, which manages more than 150,000 acres in southwest Oregon.

Watching as the yarder harvests Douglas fir trees on property managed by Lone Rock Resources.

Watching the harvest in action, I was amazed by how smooth and precise the entire process is. It felt like a carefully choreographed dance, mastered by operators who have spent thousands of hours in the cabs of these mighty machines.

On the flip side, my classmates and I were also shown the importance of reforestation following harvest. The Oregon Forest Resources Institute (OFRI) estimates that landowners plant about 40 million seedlings every year, as required by state law. We were even invited to plant a few Douglas fir seedlings of our own, which will grow over the next 40-60 years depending on location and conditions.

This Douglas fir sapling will be ready to harvest in 40-60 years.

‘Wood Is Good’

Nearly half of Oregon — about 30 million acres — is forestland. Our forests are managed for a variety of uses, including social, environmental, and economic.

Eastern Oregon forests are dominated primarily by pine trees, whereas 85% of Western Oregon forests are Douglas fir, which Joe Newton, president of Lone Rock Resources, described as the “king of trees” for timber producers.

Not only does Douglas fir grow straight and tall, but its wood is strong and flexible, making it a perfect building material. Newton said the underlying demand for more housing is driving timber markets, with Roseburg home to a world-class collection of innovative manufacturers to meet the need.

An exterior view of the Swanson Group’s Roseburg stud mill.

One of those manufacturers, the Swanson Group, welcomed us inside their Roseburg stud mill to see how raw logs are transformed into two-by-fours and other building products.

Today, the mill produces 250 million board-feet of studs per year. Board-feet is a common measurement for wood that is 1 foot long, 1 foot wide, and 1 inch thick. Though the sound was deafening, we wore special headsets that allowed us to talk back and forth as we walked through the facility roaring with saws and conveyors.

Interior view of the stud mill, overlooking the conveyor system.

If we learned nothing else, Newton said the takeaway should be that “wood is good.” Wood has a lower carbon footprint than steel and concrete, and Oregon’s advanced forest protection laws help ensure producers are sustainable.

Active Management Needed

Despite these advantages, Oregon’s timber industry has been in decline since the 1990s.

According to the American Forest Resource Council (AFRC), a Portland-based timber industry lobbying group, timber harvest in Oregon has dropped from about 8 billion board-feet in the mid-1980s to about 3.8 billion board-feet in recent years.

The federal government manages 60% of Oregon forests, yet produces just 14% of timber harvest. Data from the AFRC shows harvest levels on federal lands have dropped from 2 billion board-feet in 1990 to just 200 million board-feet by 2015.

Seven mills have closed in Oregon in 2024, eliminating 700 jobs. Meanwhile, forests grow about 2.8 billion cubic feet of new wood per year. All that additional wood is helping to fuel larger, more destructive wildfires, including this year’s season that saw a record 1.9 million acres burn.

Newton, with Lone Rock Resources, said forests need more active management (logging and thinning) to benefit both the environment and economy of rural Oregon. Our class learned about a few successes in recent years — the Private Forest Accord, signed in 2021, was a significant compromise between the timber industry and conservation groups. Major investments in mass timber research could also unlock new and innovative wood markets.

But there is clearly still work to be done. As leaders, it is up to us to help both the public and policymakers see the forest through the trees.

Class 8 gathers outside Lone Rock Resources headquarters in Roseburg.

SALEM, Oregon (December 3, 2024) — Pac/West Lobby Group is proud to announce its pro bono representation of two significant organizations, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and Shangri-La, as they prepare for the 2025 legislative session. Pac/West will work to ensure these organizations are able to effectively communicate their priorities with lawmakers.

The Anti-Defamation League was founded in 1913 to combating antisemitism and hate. Its mission has expanded to secure justice and fair treatment for all, and includes fighting extremism, online hate, and bias, while promoting education and inclusivity in communities worldwide.

Shangri-La, an Oregon-based nonprofit established in 1963, provides essential services for individuals with disabilities and mental health challenges, allowing them greater independence and a higher quality of life. Its programs include supported employment, residential care, and skills training that empower individuals to achieve their goals.

Both organizations hold special significance for Pac/West President Ryan Tribbett. His grandparents were instrumental in founding Shangri-La, and his lifelong commitment to promoting and protecting equitable representation aligns with ADL’s mission to challenge discrimination.

“Our work reflects our values,” Tribbett said. “Giving a platform to causes that build inclusivity and dignity is not just an act of generosity — it’s a responsibility. Our team is excited to be working with ADL and Shangri-La and helping advance their important missions.”

Pac/West has long demonstrated its dedication to supporting nonprofits, engaging with causes that promote youth, families, and stronger communities in Oregon. These investments of time and resources are an integral part of the company’s values.

This Giving Tuesday, Pac/West is amplifying the importance of advocacy in creating meaningful change. By partnering with ADL and Shangri-La, the firm continues its mission to support organizations that uplift vulnerable populations and give back to communities it serves.

To learn more about Pac/West Lobby Group’s values and contributions, visit www.pwlobby.com/giving-back.

The team at Pac/West Lobby Group has decades of experience advocating for a range of organizations before the Legislature, state agencies, and local boards and commissions. We work with industries including health care, organized labor, transportation, city governments, and more.

Oregon’s new State Economist, Carl Riccadonna, came bearing good news as he delivered his first-ever quarterly revenue forecast to Oregon lawmakers on Nov. 20.

In his presentation to the House and Senate interim revenue committees, Riccadonna said he expects the state general fund will bring in $947 million more in 2023-25 than previously figured. Taxpayers will also receive a $1.79 billion “kicker” in 2026, up from $1 billion.

Riccadonna provided both an economic forecast and revenue forecast for Oregon. In addition, he spoke at length about adjustments made to forecast models to help legislators and the state better plan for the future.

“We are aware that over the last several biennia, there has been a forecast bias,” Riccadonna said. “We’ve tried to take apart and reassemble the models to understand what is happening.”

Economic Forecast

According to the December Economic and Revenue Forecast, Oregon’s economy is stabilizing after a period of uncertainty. Unemployment remains below the national average, and workforce participation is strong, signaling a robust labor market.

However, economic growth is expected to moderate, reflecting national trends. The state’s reliance on migration for population growth remains critical as birth rates have declined.

Demographic shifts, particularly the aging population, are driving changes in economic demands. Sectors such as health care and elder care are experiencing increased pressure to meet growing needs. At the same time, the construction industry continues to face labor shortages. For education, both K-12 and higher education must prepare for declining enrollment and shifts in funding requirements.

There are some risks that could affect Oregon’s economy, like inflation and challenges facing global trade. Construction materials and health care supplies could be negatively affected by supply chain issues or rising costs, which could make it even harder for these sectors to stay afloat.

But there are also opportunities to invest in things like workforce training and health care infrastructure that can help Oregon grow in the long run. The next steps for policymakers and stakeholders will be important as the Legislature gets ready to make the 2025-27 state budget.

Revenue Forecast

The revenue forecast brings mostly positive news, with increases across key streams. General Fund resources for 2023-25 have grown by $947 million since the September forecast and $2.8 billion since the last legislative budget. Personal and corporate income taxes continue to outperform expectations, reflecting a stable economic base.

The personal income tax kicker will return $1.79 billion to taxpayers, while the corporate kicker will direct $1.024 billion to K-12 education. Lottery revenues also saw a modest increase, while marijuana revenues remain stable, signaling maturity in that market.

The state’s reserves are at an all-time high, with $5.7 billion available in the Rainy Day and Education Stability Funds. This fiscal stability provides a cushion for economic uncertainties but also sets the stage for complex budget discussions.

Highlights

• 2023-25 Biennium:
  • Revenues increased by $945 million since the September forecast.
  • Balance is projected to be $2.79 billion.
• 2025-27 Biennium:
  • Revenues are estimated to increase $1.3 billion since the September forecast.
  • Beginning balance is estimated to be up $945 million.
  • Available resources are estimated to increase $2.27 billion.
• Budget Reserves:
  • The Rainy Day Fund is projected to receive $329 million following the 2023-35 biennium.
  • The Rainy Day Fund and Education Stability Fund (Budget Reserve Funds) are projected to be a total of $5.7 billion at the end of the 2023-25 biennium, or 20.5% of General Fund.

Looking Toward the 2025 Legislative Session

The 2025 Oregon Legislative Session will be pivotal, not only for crafting and balancing the constitutionally required 2025-27 state budget but also for addressing major revenue challenges and opportunities. With significant revenue streams requiring renewal and evolving economic and political landscapes, the Legislature will face a complex environment. Below are a few of the items they anticipate to tackle.

Health Care: One of the most pressing issues will be the renewal of the provider tax, a critical funding source for the Oregon Health Plan (OHP), which provides healthcare for low-income Oregonians. The provider tax draws significant federal matching funds, making its renewal a key priority for maintaining healthcare access across the state. For health care providers and CCOs, this presents a vital opportunity to advocate for stable and predictable funding mechanisms to avoid disruptions in services.

Transportation: Similarly, Oregon’s transportation infrastructure, including roads and bridges, faces significant funding gaps. Declining revenues from the gas tax, driven by increased fuel efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles, create an urgent need to find alternative funding solutions. The construction sector should anticipate robust discussions on new revenue streams, such as vehicle miles traveled (VMT) fees or other user-based mechanisms, to address infrastructure maintenance and modernization needs. These discussions could open up significant opportunities for public infrastructure projects, driving demand for skilled labor and materials.

Federal Administration Changes: The potential change in federal administration adds another layer of complexity. Federal matching rates for healthcare programs like Medicaid could shift, affecting Oregon’s budget calculations. Transportation funding, such as grants for infrastructure projects, may also be influenced by federal policy priorities. Education providers could face changes in federal funding for programs like Title I or Pell Grants, which may impact budgets and programming decisions.

Political Landscape: The recent election results in Oregon underscore the delicate political balance in the upcoming session. While Democrats hold a supermajority in the State Senate, they lack a quorum-proof majority, which requires Republican participation for certain legislative actions. In the House of Representatives, late ballot counts could provide Democrats also with a supermajority. For all stakeholders, this political dynamic will require bipartisan negotiation to address revenue challenges and budget priorities. Building coalitions across party lines will be critical to advancing industry-specific priorities in healthcare, education, and construction.

There are many new faces and new leadership teams in both the House and Senate chambers. It will be critical for the 2025 Legislature to work together to address this substantial funding decisions and external factors like federal policy shifts to benefit all sectors of Oregon’s economy.

Thump! Thump! Thump! That was the sound heard near election offices around the state as voters soundly whacked a measure put forward by legislative Democrats to bring Ranked Choice Voting to federal and statewide offices. With counting nearly complete, Measure 117 is flaming out by well over 300,000 votes.

The margin of defeat is in itself remarkable, considering RCV proponents — fueled primarily by out-of-state donors who love using Oregon as their test lab — spent more than $9 million to convince voters to say yes. How much did opponents spend against the measure? $200. Yup, just 200 buckaroos. Now that’s what you call ROI.

Measure 117 was said to improve voter participation, encourage candidates from marginalized communities, and give all voters a bigger role in deciding who represents them. In short, advocates argued it was the best way to kick-start democracy.

She said it was the best in the land.

And I said: No! No! No!”

— Ringo Starr

“The No No Song” (1974)

Confusion led to disillusion, and ultimately to dissolution, of Measure 117. RCV is essentially a Voter-Donor program. Candidates are ranked in order of preference. If your top choice trails the pack after the first round of counting, then they are eliminated and their votes are harvested and implanted in the remaining candidates until one survivor remains and is declared the winner.

News media worked hard to explain on-air how the system would work. Try as they did, many voters were left more perplexed by the explanations. Pat Dorris at KGW-TV dedicated nearly an entire show explaining the intricate mechanics of RCV. But, as he noted, “Unless you’re a rocket scientist, the actual tabulation of that ranked choice vote is pretty darn confusing.”

That confusion ultimately doomed Measure 117. As one voter told me, “I just want to vote; I don’t want to have to pass a math test.”

Portland used RCV for the first time in electing a new mayor and city council. Keith Wilson, a political outsider, claimed the mayoral crown after scoring a 19-round TKO over runner-up Carmen Rubio. Advocates for RCV can point to this result as proof that the system allows for political outsiders like Wilson to have a chance of succeeding against entrenched political interests.

Measure 117 got off to a rocky start. It was a legislative referral with every legislative Democrat voting in favor and every Republican voting no. Legislators also exempted their own political races from the RCV requirement, fueling the goose and gander discussion.

Voters may have also determined that the RCV they were being asked to affirm was significantly different than the one in Alaska, Maine, or even the City of Portland. Maine allows independent voters to vote in RCV primaries, and in Alaska and Portland, elections for all candidates — regardless of political party affiliation — all run on the same ballot. It’s an All-Comers Meet, and voters can rank all the office seekers.

Measure 117, on the other hand, retained the state closed partisan primary system. Had it passed, Democrat voters could only rank Democrats, and Republicans could only rank Republicans. Then, in the general election, the two would square off just as it is done today.

For RCV to fulfill its promises of inclusion, it has to be applied in an open primary or non-partisan election. If those wealthy out-of-state interests want to truly change Oregon’s system, they should consider funding a ballot measure asking Oregonians if they want to open primary elections to all voters where everyone’s voice is heard in selecting general election finalists. Voters might warm up to that one and RCV could later have a chance for an encore appearance.

But for now, its R.I.P. for RCV.

Rick Metsger is the political analyst for KOIN 6 News, and on Sunday, Aug. 25 he talked about the expected impacts of Measure 118 on the November ballot.

If passed, it would place a 3% tax on a businesses’ sales in the state above $25 million, then distribute that money equally to Oregonians.